njoshuabradshaw 2 weeks ago | flag

What are the steps to integrate probabilistic forecasting into the supply chain of an Aerospace MRO (i.e, similar to your work with Air France Industries), particularly when I'm a minor player (employee) handling it independently without any investment capital, but rather as part of my job responsibilities?

Additionally, as you have discussed in your YouTube videos and articles, is forecasting truly the answer, or should the focus be more on reengineering the supply chain or implementing other process modifications across different levels?

vermorel 2 weeks ago | flag

Unfortunately, in supply chain, things can be done "a small piece" at a time. It just doesn't work. See

I would have very much preferred the answer to this question to be different, to have a nice incremental path that could be made available to all employees; it would have made the early life of Lokad much easier while competing against Big Vendors.

Then, don't underestimate what a supposedly "minor" employee can do. Apathy is one of the many diseases touching large companies. When nobody cares, the one person who genuinely care ends up steering the ship. All it takes to point out the obvious as many people it takes. The flaws of the "legacy" supply chain solutions are not subtle, they are glaring.

In MRO, it boils down to: uncertainty must be embraced and quantified, varying TATs matter as much as varying consumptions, etc. See an extensive review of the challenges that need to be covered https://www.lokad.com/tv/2021/4/28/miami-a-supply-chain-persona-an-aviation-mro/

Forecasting is a mean to an end, but just a mean. Focusing on forecasting as a "stand-alone thingy" is wrong. This is the naked forecast antipattern, see https://www.lokad.com/antipattern-naked-forecasts/

For an overview on how to get a supply chain initiative organized, and launched, see https://www.lokad.com/tv/2022/7/6/getting-started-with-a-quantitative-supply-chain-initiative/

Hope it helps,