abdullin 6 weeks ago | flag

It looks like climate change effects on economics might be accelerated in the mid term. E.g. exceptionally dry summer in Europe alone wouldn't be that bad for the supply, but war in Ukraine and imbalance of supply chains that started 2020 - it all adds up.

Impossible to predict the future in this situation, but at least the actors could try to manage their risks across a range of future probabilities.

OlivierJonard 6 weeks ago | flag

That's a bit like the S&OP Process in general : it should be based on the important decision you need to take and those decisions only.

vermorel 6 weeks ago | flag

Unfortunately, S&OP processes - at the very least those I had the chance to observe in my career - had already devolved into tedious iterated sandbagging exercises, exclusively moving targets up or down without - ever - touching any actual decision. Yet, the insight remains correct, without putting the decision front and center, it devolves into idle speculations about the future.