1 point by s40racer 3 months | flag | 1 comment


I have a forecast cockpit implementation (with the help of Lokad scientist) and I need help correctly interpret the output on this dashboard. An example is given below.

11635178 - (Above: 9.62% - At: 0% - Below: 90.38%)

How do I interpret Above, At, and Below % ?

The dashboard also gives an overall forecast sanity label. Is this the overall forecast for all the SKU or just the ones in the Forecast Sanity table?

ToLok 3 months | flag

Hello s40racer,

The forecast cockpit is evaluating the accuracy of the quantile 95 with respect to the past sales. In other words, it is measuring the percentage of time that the sales where over the quantile 95.
In a perfect forecast where we have the exact distribution of demand, this percentage should be equal to 5%: 95% of the time, the sales should be under the quantile 95 and 5% of the time sales should be over it.

In the example 11635178 - (Above: 9.62% - At: 0% - Below: 90.38%), it means that for the Reference 11635178, 9.62% of the time the sales were above the quantile 95 and 90.38% of the time there were below. In particular, this means that the forecast is a little underestimating the Demand for this specific Ref as we have actually 4.62% more weeks with sales over quantile 95 than expected.
This is completely normal to have small disparities such as this. If we didn't, we'd probably be overfitting the data.

Regarding the scope of the overall forecast sanity label, it is indeed an average (weighted) concerning only the Ref (not SKU) in the Forecast Sanity table. In details, this is looking only at the history dating of at least 1 year: hence the Items that are more recent are not in the analysis.

Hope it helps!